Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that he would be running as an Independent candidate in October of 2023. And while many believed this all but took him out of the running for the 2024 Presidential Race, he made an announcement recently that is swaying Republican voters towards him and away from Republican candidate Donald Trump.
The dynamic of the 2024 presidential race is shifting as independent candidate RFK Jr. gains praise from anti-vaccine Republicans. This development will potentially divert votes from both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
According to a recent poll by Monmouth University, Kennedy’s support has risen among voters, with about 1 in 5 Republicans now considering him as an option. The university polled voters who consider themselves “double haters”, defined as people who do not support either Donald Trump or Joe Biden.
Multiple high-quality national polls have shown that Kennedy is pulling support from both Biden and Trump, but is clearly winning more support from the latter. The reason for this shift becomes clearer when looking at Kennedy’s stance on vaccines, which resonates with a significant segment of Republican voters.
Kennedy is a vocal vaccine skeptic, and has gained an impressive following among anti-vaccine Republicans and MAGA supporters. However, his views on vaccines could potentially harm his campaign since his goal is to pull support from both the Republican and Democratic parties. A Monmouth University poll revealed that when presented with his stance on vaccines, Republicans become more likely to consider voting for Kennedy, while Democrats are less inclined to do so.
The poll asked voters whether they would consider supporting Kennedy before and after they were informed of his claims linking autism to vaccines and his theory that COVID-19 was targeted at certain races. Before being informed, 15% of Republicans and 14% of Democrats expressed consideration for Kennedy. After the information was provided, 23% of Republicans and only 7% of Democrats said they would consider voting for him.
Despite concerns that Kennedy could act as a spoiler in the election, it is uncertain whether his stance on vaccines will ultimately sway enough voters to make a significant impact. The polling data is limited, and voters are not always truthful about their intentions. However, it does highlight how Kennedy’s views on vaccines could potentially cut against Republicans in the 2024 race, as more than 6 in 10 Republicans express skepticism towards the safety of COVID-19 vaccines.
These contradictions in Kennedy’s candidacy may be his ultimate downfall. Seeing as he was formerly running as a Democratic candidate, he risks alienating some of his Democratic voters with his stances on vaccines.
Meanwhile, the abortion issue has become a major point of contention between Biden and Trump, with both campaigns using it to rally their respective bases. In a recent interview with Time magazine, Trump declined to commit to vetoing federal restrictions on abortion if legislation is presented to him. His comments drew criticism from President Biden, who accused Trump of not trusting women and stated that he would protect women’s reproductive rights.
While Kennedy was largely counted out as a candidate when he switched to an Independent platform, his ability to split the votes for either Trump or Biden add an interesting factor to the race. All of the candidates’ stances on issues such as these will be closely watched by voters, as they weigh their options and make decisions that could impact the future of American politics.
