Egg prices are rising sharply again, putting pressure on grocery budgets across the United States. In November, the cost of a dozen large Grade A eggs jumped 8.2% from October, reaching an average of $3.65. This marks a significant increase from $2.52 at the start of the year. While slightly below September’s average of $3.82, the cost remains far higher than historical norms, underscoring the volatility of the egg market.
One of the main drivers of this price surge is the continued impact of the avian flu, which has caused severe disruptions to the egg supply chain. The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has led to the loss of millions of egg-laying hens in states like Utah, Washington, and Oregon. The USDA reported that U.S. egg production fell by 4% year-over-year in October, totaling 9.19 billion eggs. These losses are significant in an industry where supply and demand are delicately balanced. The image above shows the locations where the flu has been reported.
The avian flu spreads easily among birds, particularly in high-density farming operations where close quarters facilitate rapid transmission. Wild migratory birds, which carry the virus across regions, are a common source of outbreaks. Efforts to contain the disease through flock culling have been effective in slowing the spread but have also reduced the number of egg-laying hens available, further tightening the supply.
This impact is felt not just in the cost of eggs themselves but also in a wide range of other food products. Eggs are a key ingredient in many baked goods, sauces, and processed foods. Higher egg prices increase the production costs of these items, which are often passed on to consumers. For example, holiday staples like cakes, cookies, and pies become more expensive to prepare, compounding the financial strain on households during an already expensive season.
The holiday season typically drives up demand for eggs, as they are essential for baking and festive meals. While seasonal price increases are common, the current situation is compounded by supply disruptions caused by the avian flu. This combination of high demand and limited supply has created a perfect storm, resulting in some of the highest egg prices in years.
Egg prices briefly stabilized in 2023 as producers rebuilt their flocks following earlier outbreaks. However, new waves of the avian flu in late 2023 and 2024 disrupted this progress. Rebuilding egg-laying flocks takes time, as hens need months to mature before they can begin producing eggs at full capacity. This slow recovery process leaves the industry vulnerable to further supply shocks.
In addition to affecting household budgets, the rising cost of eggs has implications for businesses, particularly bakeries and restaurants that rely heavily on eggs in their operations. These businesses face higher input costs, which may lead to increased menu prices or smaller profit margins. The ripple effects of egg inflation highlight how interconnected the food supply chain is and how disruptions in one area can cascade through the system.
Producers using smaller, decentralized farming models have been less affected by the avian flu. These operations, which often focus on free-range or pasture-raised eggs, avoid the densely packed conditions that facilitate disease outbreaks. However, their eggs typically come at a premium, making them less accessible to cost-conscious consumers.
For now, the rising cost of eggs is a reminder of the fragility of the food supply chain. From household groceries to baked goods and restaurant menus, the impact of egg inflation is widespread. As the industry navigates ongoing challenges, consumers and businesses alike are left grappling with the financial effects of this essential ingredient’s volatility.
