Food prices have been on a steady rise in recent years, and there’s little reason to believe this trend will reverse with the new incoming administration. A closer look at the Trump administration reveals how its policies and actions contributed to inflation at the grocery store—and how ongoing agricultural challenges could keep driving prices higher.
From 2017 to 2020, food prices consistently climbed. Trade wars, particularly with China, disrupted U.S. agriculture. Farmers who relied on exporting crops like soybeans and corn faced declining demand, while retaliatory tariffs made imported goods more expensive. These disruptions forced many farmers into financial straits, leading to higher costs passed along to consumers.
Deregulation under Trump also played a role. Policies aimed at cutting red tape for businesses often resulted in reduced oversight of food safety and supply chains. This left the system vulnerable to inefficiencies, bottlenecks, and even contamination scares—each of which added costs to food production and distribution. When an outbreak happens and millions of dollars of product are recalled, those costs are passed on to consumers.
The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these issues. Meat processing plants, already underregulated, became virus hotspots, forcing closures and production slowdowns. With reduced supply, prices for beef, pork, and poultry soared. Panic buying and supply chain disruptions added further pressure, pushing food prices to record highs by the end of Trump’s term. Corporations are reluctant to reduce prices once they have risen, if the consumer will pay it, they will keep the prices elevated.
But food inflation isn’t just a policy issue—it’s also deeply tied to agriculture and the environment. Decades of intensive farming and monoculture practices have left American soil depleted. The lessons of the Dust Bowl, which highlighted the dangers of overworking land without replenishing its nutrients, seem forgotten. Today’s farming practices, driven by short-term profits, often fail to invest in soil health, leading to lower yields and higher costs over time.
Global events, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have only magnified these problems. Ukraine, a major wheat exporter, has seen its agricultural output decimated, leading to shortages and price spikes worldwide. Sanctions on Russia have further strained the global supply of fertilizers, essential for maximizing crop production. Farmers are forced to pay more for fewer resources, driving up the cost of food production.
Climate change, which Trump consistently dismissed, is worsening agricultural challenges. Rising temperatures, droughts, and unpredictable weather patterns are reducing crop yields across the globe. These environmental stresses add another layer of uncertainty, further driving up costs at the grocery store. According to a study published in Nature, yield percentages will swing wildly.
The combination of short-sighted policies, geopolitical instability, and environmental degradation means that higher food prices are likely here to stay. The steady rise during Trump’s presidency serves as a warning: without significant investment in sustainable agriculture, climate resilience, and global food security, the challenges that drove prices higher under his administration will continue to plague consumers.
Food prices reflect the vulnerabilities in our systems. Whether it’s mismanaged trade policies, failing to protect soil health, or ignoring the realities of climate change, these issues don’t resolve themselves. Addressing them requires long-term solutions, or shoppers will continue to bear the brunt of these failures every time they visit the grocery store.
