Google Trends, a tool that allows users to explore data on search requests, has been used to predict the outcomes of presidential elections. It tracks search interests for presidential candidates and has been deemed as a reliable predictor of election outcomes. Historically, Google Trends has accurately predicted every United States presidential outcome since 2004. This includes the highly polarizing 2016 US elections, when President Donald Trump took office.
Once again Google trends are predicting a Trump victory. In the image above the candidate with the higher interest line has won since google trends started publishing data. One of the primary reasons google trends is so accurate compared to standard polling is that it keeps track of users when they are not aware people are tracking their movements. Google trends give an unbiased and accurate assessment of the current political climate and the potential fate of the candidates.
Despite its track record, Google Trends is a relatively new predictor but one that people should pay close attention to going forward. It accurately predicted Joe Biden’s win in 2020.
Google trends accurately predicted Obamas win in 2008 over John McCain.
Google trends accurately predicted Trumps win in 2016. Traditional polling had Hillary Clinton predicted to win. The discrepancy in regular polls may be from the reluctance of Trump supporters to participate in polling. Leading up to the election, Trump had characterized polling as “fake” and biased against his campaign, which may have led his supporters to decline participation in polling. Thus the size of Trump’s support was not captured in pre-election polls, so the eventual number of voters who cast their ballot for Trump was larger than polls indicated.
Google trends accurately predicted Obamas win in 2012.
It accurately predicted George W. Bushes win vs John Kerry.
While Google Trends has proven to be a reliable tool in predicting the outcomes of several elections, no predictive tool is infallible. The unique circumstances surrounding the 2024 election and the unique circumstances surrounding Trump could lead to a discrepancy between the Google Trends prediction and the actual outcome. Despite this, Google Trends remains a valuable tool for analyzing public interest and predicting election outcomes. So the question is will 2024 be like 2016.
If the election were held today, Google Trends indicates that Trump would win over Joe Biden.
